Climate change
Climate change is a significant and lasting change in the statistical distribution of weather
patterns over periods ranging from decades to millions of years. It may be a
change in average weather conditions, or in the distribution of weather around
the average conditions (i.e., more or fewer extreme weather events). Climate
change is caused by factors that include oceanic processes (such as oceanic circulation), variations in solar
radiation received by Earth, plate
tectonics and volcanic eruptions, and human-induced
alterations of the natural world; these latter effects are currently causing global
warming, and "climate change" is often used to describe
human-specific impacts.
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Terminology
The most general definition of
climate change is a change in the statistical properties of the climate
system when considered over long periods of time, regardless of cause.[1]
Accordingly, fluctuations over periods shorter than a few decades, such as El Niño,
do not represent climate change.
The term sometimes is used to
refer specifically to climate change caused by human activity, as opposed to
changes in climate that may have resulted as part of Earth's natural processes.[2]
In this sense, especially in the context of environmental policy, the term climate
change has become synonymous with anthropogenic global
warming. Within scientific journals, global warming refers to
surface temperature increases while climate change includes global
warming and everything else that increasing greenhouse gas levels will affect.[3]
Causes
On the broadest scale, the
rate at which energy is received from the sun and the rate at which it is lost
to space determine the equilibrium temperature and climate of Earth. This
energy is distributed around the globe by winds, ocean currents, and other
mechanisms to affect the climates of different regions.
Factors that can shape climate
are called climate forcings or "forcing
mechanisms".[4]
These include processes such as variations in solar
radiation, deviations in the Earth's orbit, mountain-building
and continental drift, and changes in greenhouse
gas concentrations. There are a variety of climate
change feedbacks that can either amplify or diminish the initial
forcing. Some parts of the climate system, such as the oceans and ice caps,
respond slowly in reaction to climate forcings, while others respond more
quickly.
Forcing mechanisms can be
either "internal" or "external". Internal forcing
mechanisms are natural processes within the climate system itself (e.g., the thermohaline circulation). External
forcing mechanisms can be either natural (e.g., changes in solar output) or
anthropogenic (e.g., increased emissions of greenhouse gases).
Whether the initial forcing
mechanism is internal or external, the response of the climate system might be
fast (e.g., a sudden cooling due to airborne volcanic ash
reflecting sunlight), slow (e.g. thermal
expansion of warming ocean water), or a combination (e.g., sudden
loss of albedo
in the arctic ocean as sea ice melts, followed by more gradual thermal
expansion of the water). Therefore, the climate system can respond abruptly,
but the full response to forcing mechanisms might not be fully developed for
centuries or even longer.
Glaciers
Glaciers
are considered among the most sensitive indicators of climate change.[42]
Their size is determined by a mass balance
between snow input and melt output. As temperatures warm, glaciers retreat
unless snow precipitation increases to make up for the additional melt; the converse
is also true.
Glaciers grow and shrink due
both to natural variability and external forcings. Variability in temperature,
precipitation, and englacial and subglacial hydrology can strongly determine
the evolution of a glacier in a particular season. Therefore, one must average
over a decadal or longer time-scale and/or over a many individual glaciers to
smooth out the local short-term variability and obtain a glacier history that
is related to climate.
A world glacier inventory has
been compiled since the 1970s, initially based mainly on aerial photographs and
maps but now relying more on satellites. This compilation tracks more than
100,000 glaciers covering a total area of approximately 240,000 km2,
and preliminary estimates indicate that the remaining ice cover is around
445,000 km2. The World Glacier Monitoring Service collects data
annually on glacier retreat and glacier mass balance From this data,
glaciers worldwide have been found to be shrinking significantly, with strong
glacier retreats in the 1940s, stable or growing conditions during the 1920s
and 1970s, and again retreating from the mid 1980s to present.[43]
The most significant climate
processes since the middle to late Pliocene
(approximately 3 million years ago) are the glacial and interglacial
cycles. The present interglacial period (the Holocene)
has lasted about 11,700 years.[44]
Shaped by orbital variations, responses such as the rise
and fall of continental ice sheets and significant
sea-level changes helped create the climate. Other changes, including Heinrich
events, Dansgaard–Oeschger events and the Younger Dryas,
however, illustrate how glacial variations may also influence climate without
the orbital forcing.
Glaciers leave behind moraines
that contain a wealth of material—including organic matter, quartz, and
potassium that may be dated—recording the periods in which a glacier advanced
and retreated. Similarly, by tephrochronological
techniques, the lack of glacier cover can be identified by the presence of soil
or volcanic tephra
horizons whose date of deposit may also be ascertained.
This time series, based on satellite data, shows
the annual Arctic sea ice minimum since 1979. The September 2010 extent was the
third lowest in the satellite record.
oceans can affect marine food
webs.[64]
Sea level
change
Global sea level change for
much of the last century has generally been estimated using tide gauge
measurements collated over long periods of time to give a long-term average.
More recently, altimeter measurements — in combination with accurately
determined satellite
orbits — have provided an improved measurement of global sea level change.[65]
To measure sea levels prior to instrumental measurements, scientists have dated
coral reefs
that grow near the surface of the ocean, coastal sediments, marine
terraces, ooids
in limestones,
and nearshore archaeological remains. The predominant dating methods used are uranium series and radiocarbon, with cosmogenic radionuclides
being sometimes used to date terraces that have experienced relative sea level
fall.


